The rules-based international order is only as strong as the democracies that defend it. Unfortunately, the road to authoritarian resurgence has been paved with democracies’ political complacency. While the unity that democracies have shown in response to Putin’s war of conquest in Ukraine is rather remarkable, we must seize this moment of democratic awakening to counter the rise of authoritarianism in Europe and Eurasia and around the globe. Democracies must use all the legal, economic, and diplomatic tools available to deter authoritarian aggression and lay the foundations for a safer, freer, and more just and prosperous world.
Last year, for the first time in the 21st century, the prevailing government type in this region was what Freedom House calls the “hybrid regime,” which combines elements of democracy and autocracy.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a reminder that the pursuit of democracy and peace are intimately connected.
There is an intensifying battle between democracy and autocracy, where a coalition of free democratic nations of the world is needed to counter aggressive dictatorships.
There are different fronts in the confrontation between autocracy and democracy.
From Russia to China to Myanmar to Cambodia, democracy and peace are intimately intertwined. The two conditions are mutually reinforcing and stand or fall together. It is rare for a democratic country to invade a neighbour or for two democratic countries to declare war against each other. Decisions in a democracy must carry public opinion with them, and public opinion will only support the war in extreme necessity. An autocracy has no such constraint.
Prevailing trends in world politics, especially the return of great-power rivalry, create an urgent need for new strategic thinking in Europe. However, the effort to devise European strategic thinking for the coming period is increasingly complex because of the imperative to address not only Russia, the traditional security threat to the continent, but also China and the diverse challenges it now poses.
I am convinced that the EU must be more than a soft power: we need hard power too. However, we need to realize that the concept of complex power cannot be reduced to military means: it is about using the full range of our instruments to achieve our goals. It is about thinking and acting in terms of power. And, bit by bit, the conditions for this to happen are being fulfilled.
In addition, we have seen in recent years the instrumentalization of migrants, the privatization of armies and the politicization of the control of sensitive technologies. Add to this the dynamics of state failures, the retreat of democratic freedoms, and the attacks on the ‘global commons’ of cyberspace, the high seas and outer space. The conclusion is clear: the defence of Europe requires a comprehensive concept of security.
In any case, the normative competition between democracies and authoritarian countries is likely to last. The EU would gain by further reinforcing both its defensive and offensive capabilities as a democratic power to limit and deter interference of authoritarian regimes in the domestic political affairs of Member States.
But the battle of coalitions is much more than just a competition between political systems. It first and foremost involves intense economic competition. China’s ability to mobilize international cooperation and support is intimately related to its financial leverage. To compete with autocracies’ efforts to succeed, the EU and our allies must reach out to countries beyond the usual ‘like-minded’ partners. A larger coalition could be assembled through renewed diplomatic activism — at both multilateral and bilateral levels — to rally countries around positions and norms that the EU and its partners consider essential to defend.
An alliance of democracies could play an essential role in this regard. It would serve as a political alliance forging common threat assessments and coordinating strategies among democracies to position the free world for success in the growing strategic competition with revisionist autocratic powers. In addition, the union would help foster cooperation to defend against a wide range of threats to democratic countries, counter authoritarianism, and advance shared interests and values.
China and Russia castigated the transatlantic allies for engaging in “value-based diplomacy”.
But, instead of considering it a relic of a time gone by, I believe that values-based diplomacy is precisely what is needed during these tumultuous times.
And we must be prepared to take meaningful action to address the three defining challenges facing the democratic world — democratic backsliding, increasing assertiveness from autocracies and the rise of emerging and potentially disruptive technologies.