Previous Western policies towards Russia have failed to achieve their primary goal of establishing a stable and cordial relationship with Moscow because the thinking — or, instead, the keenness to not think about certain things — has often been unrealistic and naive. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark ultimatum, demanding that the US make “reliable and firm legal guarantees” that NATO will not expand eastward or else, essentially, he will invade Ukraine.
How did we get here?
At least on some level, due to the prevalent belief that Russia and the West have the same goals and desired “end states”, and to the great readiness of the West to make concessions to win Putin’s favour. It is happening again.
Putin has almost managed to manoeuvre Russia back to the Soviet era, to the Cold War, when Soviet and US leaders decided world affairs and even the worlds world’s fate amongst themselves.
Now he wants a return to the world of Yalta, and guaranteeing — a ridiculous notion to anyone who places any worth in the values of sovereignty and self-determination — whether Ukraine will join NATO or not, he strives to divide Europe into spheres of influence effectively.
Putin has amassed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders to force NATO to give into his ultimatum — to restrict the alliance’s expansion in the east and agree never to position weapons systems in Ukraine. Because Russia feels threatened by the defensive alliance that is NATO. Apparently, China agrees. If Putin’s demands are not met, we are warned (by Russia, of course) that tensions may spike in Europe.
So, blackmail and extortion.
Lest we forget.
The war Putin launched against Ukraine in 2014 continues with around 7% of the Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation.
Russia has occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are Georgian sovereign territories. In addition, Russian troops are in Moldova. The flagrantly thuggish behaviour the Kremlin has engaged in during Putin’s reign are too many to count.
NATO borders only 6 per cent of the Russian land border, a defensive alliance, one which has only ever engaged in defensive exercises, and Putin feels threatened.
And now, he is offering a solution to a problem that he has created.
A treaty with Russia is not worth the paper it is written on.
Only in one aspect is the relationship with Russia is predictable. All the information and understanding we have at the moment suggests that Russia, for the foreseeable future, will continue to disdain and trample on internationally accepted rules and values and commit further aggression if undeterred, using some version of the same “Russia feels threatened” story again as justification.
As NATO, we can choose to approach this differently — perhaps, start dealing with the actual Kremlin, increase our presence in the region (Baltics) and do all we can to help Ukraine in any way we can. If we do not, it is only our credibility we can lose.