In recent months, thousands of Russian tourists have been lazily resting on European beaches and resorts, cities, restaurants and bars, supermarkets and museums.
At the same time, Russian missiles are falling over Ukraine. A few days ago, part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (NPP) was “seriously damaged” by military strikes, forcing the shutdown of one of the reactors. This is a blatantly irresponsible violation of nuclear safety regulations and another demonstration of Russia’s contempt for international norms. Unpleasantly, but inevitably, one must conclude that no one is surprised.
Russia has normalised, to put it simply, total insanity and barbarism. It is also not surprising that the Russian troops are hiding their weapons between the power units of Zaporizhzhya NPP; Russian forces have also mined the territory of the NPP.
It would be funny if it wasn’t true and didn’t threaten, without exaggeration, the entire continent.
But, ah, yes. International commitments, values, principles? For Russia, these are empty, absolutely non-binding concepts. Things are not changing, Russia is not trying at all.
After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many Russians today still believe that Russia’s war against Ukraine, in the long run, will only mean temporary inconveniences, and short-term difficulties, and soon everything will return to normal. And this has happened in the past — a certain deja-vu feeling was created by the endless cycle “Russia commits crimes — the West expresses concern — the West shakes its finger — “Strategic dialogue must begin” — return to the usual regime and Russia is given carte blanche — Russia commits crimes — the West is shocked and expresses concern…” Well, you get the idea. But the West has stepped out (or been kicked out) of the usual cycle this year.
Opposition to the war within the country could be one of the most effective tools that could stop Putin. According to various polls, it is clear that the absolute majority of the Russian population currently supports the Kremlin’s foreign policy and justifies Russia’s war in Ukraine. Many more Russians have yet to realise that their government’s actions will have grave consequences for the well-being, reputation and future of the everyday citizen and the country as a whole. Unfortunately, so far the typical (but, admittedly and with all due respect — the impressively harsh and broad) economic sanctions have not been able to achieve this understanding. It takes time.
The bite of a locked door
However, there is another set of “sanctions” that has a high potential to seriously “bite”: the decision of democratic countries to ban the entry of Russian citizens into their countries. No leisure trips, no business trips, no visits to friends or family.
The democratic world would be locked to Russia, the key would be broken — until the desired changes were achieved.
Would it be excessively cruel to separate Russian citizens from their “diaspora”? Or the so-called entry ban on “good Russians” wouldn’t be too painful for them? No more painful than what Ukrainians face, whether they stay in Ukraine or are forced to flee. Tourist visas — any visa for entering Europe is not a human right of all citizens of Russia and Belarus. It’s a privilege, we don’t issue visas, we grant them.
Latvia, like the other Baltic states and Poland, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, has suspended the issuance of Schengen visas to Russian citizens. Other European countries, including the very close Finland, continue to issue Schengen visas to Russians and Belarusians, Finland itself serving as the only direct route “straight” to Europe in the conditions when Europe has closed its airspace to Russia. As you know, in Schengen, one country the issued visa is valid for travel throughout the Schengen area.
Finland is currently the de facto open gateway to Europe and a transit zone for Russian citizens to travel further within the Schengen area.
In July alone, Finland issued more than 10,500 visas to Russian citizens.
The number of Russian citizens crossing our borders has increased significantly, and that in itself is a national security threat. Dissatisfaction with what has been observed is almost palpable, the atmosphere is irritated. It is an understandable reaction appropriate to the circumstances and context. The government is called to act. But the very foundations of the Schengen area provide for free movement within it — usually, if another Schengen country has issued a Schengen visa to a third-country national, they can move freely within the entire Schengen area. Yes, of course, we can take the most radical step and restore border control on our internal borders — that is, on the borders of Lithuania and Estonia. On all roads, air and water. It’s a hugely resource-intensive decision. It would be more realistic and painless for us to reach an agreement at the level of the European Union on solving this issue. Because there are already enough countries that are starting to raise alarm.
You cannot reverse years of policy in one day
According to the information provided by the Directorate of Citizenship and Migration Affairs, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian citizens have submitted 1,276 first-time applications for residence rights in Latvia. During this period, 342 first-time temporary residence permits (TRP) were issued to Russian citizens (including 233 related to family reunification and 70 related to employment). 166 first-time permanent residence permits (PRP), including 115 as repatriates and 32 as former Latvian citizens and non-citizens. It should be noted that these permits were issued in the period from February 24 to April, when the Saeima suspended the issuance of residence permits to citizens of Russia and Belarus.
In total, approximately 45,000 TRP and around 53,200 PRPs have been issued in Latvia. In the middle of last year, 9,795 TRP and 41,300 PRPs were valid for Russian citizens (26,000 former non-citizens). Data for several reporting periods since the start of the covid pandemic show that the amount of TRP issued to Russian citizens has slowly decreased, but the amount of PRP has practically not changed.
Since Russia started the war against Ukraine, more than 200 Russian journalists and 23 media organizations have arrived in Latvia. Some of them have already officially started work in Riga with a noble goal — to tell the truth, to inform the Russian population also about the war in Ukraine, which is no longer possible to do in Russia. However, the State Security Service has very reasonably warned the country’s top officials about the risks associated with these media companies in Latvia. Considering how conditional the ability of our services to objectively and fully assess the specific persons who enter Latvia in this way, the most dangerous thing that could be done is to decide to be naive in good faith. Neither our previous experience nor our common sense allows us to do this — and our own goal should not be to become a kind of raft-central for Russian opposition figures. In the last few weeks, the first goat’s feet have already started to rain outside, and I do not doubt that everything will end there. Must remember. The safety and well-being of our people and our national security come first.
Back to the numbers. From February 25 to the end of July, another 654 visas were issued to Russian citizens at the representative offices due to humanitarian reasons in case of a relative’s illness or funeral, and as visas for family members of Latvian or European Union (EU) citizens. Therefore, a total of 1,107 visas were issued to Russian citizens in Latvian representative offices during the mentioned period.
Without extending temporary residence permits, it will not be possible to get rid of the presence of all Russian citizens in Latvia. First of all, on July 1, TRP issued to 9,281 Russian citizens was valid. Second, it is primarily planned to target those who received TRP in exchange for various investments; to evaluate other residence permits, amendments to other regulations will be necessary (this is the Immigration Law).
We need a unified sanctions policy from the whole EU
If we — the Baltics, the Czechs, the Poles and the Dutch, remain the only ones with their policy of not issuing visas (and not only), the impact of such sanctions will be many times smaller. This is not the time to be cautious and picky — quite the opposite. Sanctions are a tool of influence. This is very important to understand. Foreign policy — and sanctions — are not psychotherapy.
The goal of sanctions is not to feel good, but to get a good result.
Depending on how specific sanctions are applied, they can cause significant harm to innocent people, including ourselves, our companies, our employees, and our national interests.
In an ideal world, only the bad guys could be “hit” while sparing everyone else. But that’s not the case, and it’s not just about a few bad guys, it’s about the bad guys who are using the resources of the entire country, Russia, to violently influence their neighbours and destabilise Europe.
Russian aggression in Ukraine would not be possible without the participation of the Russian public, and the Russian people should be aware of this.
Sanctions against a select few Russian oligarchs and elites will not be enough — especially because they use the money of Russian citizens as their piggy bank! Russian citizens can put an end to Putin’s violent regime. For that to happen, the vast majority of Russians must understand — and feel — the consequences of Putin’s policies. A European Union-wide suspension of Schengen visas could be very effective in this case.
I believe that policymakers should be honest about how sanctions work. There are moderate sanctions. And then there are sanctions that intentionally and purposefully hurt Russia, its economy, and its people to hopefully inflict enough pain to force Russia to change its policies. At the same time, we must be aware of the nature of the globalised economy, that is, we cannot isolate the rest of the world, including ourselves, from our blows. It is painful for everyone, even if Russia will suffer much more than we.
If decisions do not follow
If the necessary EU-level decisions do not follow (and will not follow very soon), we will be forced to seriously consider other options for action.
I have personally addressed the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Finnish Parliament to draw attention to the current situation in Latvia and the Baltic States and the impact that Finland’s immigration policy has on us regarding the entry of Russian citizens. Immigration issues are, of course, the exclusive competence of the member states, and it should be so, at the same time, a compromise must be tried. Finland will limit the issuance of visas to Russian citizens. Not completely, but the start is promising.
In the meantime, Latvia can consider whether in certain cases the already issued visas should not be cancelled.
I have already suggested that along with the expansion of sanctions against Russia and the increase of support for Ukraine, it is also worth, figuratively speaking, cleaning and tidying up your yard. Regarding temporary residence permits and the money with which they were obtained, for example, those who are unable to prove the origin of the money with which the TRP was once “bought”, the TRP should be cancelled and, by the AML directive, the potentially criminal funds should also be confiscated. The Immigration Law should be revised, limiting the possibility to extend the TRP for another five years, also, I think that permanent residence permits cannot be very necessary for those who stay in Latvia only for the required six out of twelve months.
You may have to take drastic measures. Under current Schengen rules, member states can introduce border checks at their internal borders — ports, airports, and all roads — for a limited time if there is a serious threat to public order or internal security. To restore control over entry into Latvia, if necessary, we can decide on the restoration of border control at internal borders, i.e., on the border with Lithuania and Estonia.